DUBAI — Dubai’s gold market has been on a bit of a roller coaster this month, though it’s settled into a narrower range recently as traders try to figure out what the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to do next. After some wild swings early in November, prices have calmed down—at least for now.
Retail rates for 24K gold in the UAE opened November at Dh482.25 per gram and have mostly bounced around between Dh475 and Dh505 since then. The lowest point came on November 4, when 24K dropped to Dh475.25, driven by a brief dip in international prices and a stronger dollar. From there, prices rallied back up to Dh504.75 on November 12 as global bullion climbed on safe-haven demand and the dollar took a breather.
Since mid-month, things have eased off. Prices slipped into the high Dh480s and have now stabilized at Dh489.75 as of November 18 and 19.
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Three Phases in One Month
November has basically broken into three distinct phases for 24K gold in Dubai.
The first was a shaky start, with prices moving from Dh482.25 on November 1 down to Dh475.25 by November 4, before bouncing back to Dh495.50 by November 11. That’s a pretty solid swing in less than two weeks.
The second phase was a short burst of momentum. On November 12, 24K hit Dh504.75, and the next day it was still at Dh502.25. That’s when things felt like they might keep climbing.
The third phase is where we are now—a cooling-off period. Rates have been holding between Dh485 and Dh493 as traders reassess the likelihood of a December rate cut from the Fed. Everyone’s trying to read the tea leaves on what central banks are going to do next, and that uncertainty is keeping gold from making any big moves.
22K Followed the Same Pattern
22K gold tracked a similar path. It started November at Dh446.50, dropped to Dh440 on November 4, then climbed steadily to Dh467 by November 12. From there it eased back into the mid-450s and is now sitting at Dh453.50.
The fact that both 24K and 22K moved in parallel shows how closely UAE retail prices are tied to global sentiment rather than just local demand. Dubai’s gold market doesn’t operate in a vacuum—it reacts to what’s happening internationally, especially when it comes to the dollar and U.S. monetary policy.
What’s Driving Global Prices?
International gold has been clawing back losses after a recent slide, trading around $4,109 per ounce after rising 0.3% in the previous session. Despite a risk-on tone in wider financial markets—meaning investors are feeling more confident about stocks and other riskier assets—gold is holding up.
Part of that comes from the rally in global equity markets, particularly technology stocks. Nvidia’s upbeat outlook gave a boost to AI-heavy portfolios, and analysts say the correlation between those portfolios and gold has actually grown stronger in recent months. That might sound counterintuitive, but it reflects the complex dynamics at play in today’s markets.
The Fed’s Data-Dependent Stance
The Federal Reserve is still taking a “data-dependent” approach, which basically means they’re not committing to anything until they see more economic data. That leaves traders guessing whether a December rate cut is on the table or not.
For now, gold traders in Dubai expect prices to hold within the current range unless fresh signals come out suggesting the Fed is shifting its stance. If there’s clarity on a December policy move—one way or the other—that could push gold in a clear direction. Until then, it’s likely to stay in this tight corridor, reacting to short-term headlines but not making any dramatic moves.
For anyone shopping for gold in Dubai, the current stability might actually be a good thing after the volatility earlier in the month. Whether it lasts is another question entirely.