BISHKEK — Something unexpected has been happening in Kyrgyzstan. While much of the world grapples with economic uncertainty, this small Central Asian nation has seen its economy grow by 10% in the first nine months of 2025, pushing GDP to around $13.7 billion, according to government statistics released Wednesday.
The numbers are striking. Construction is up nearly 30%. Retail and wholesale trade have climbed 11%. Mining and industry are also expanding. Walk through Bishkek today and you’ll see cranes on the skyline, new shopping centers opening, and a palpable sense of economic activity that wasn’t there a few years ago.
But there’s more to this story than simple growth figures.
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A New Role in a Fractured World
Kyrgyzstan has traditionally been a country where families depended on relatives working abroad, mostly in Russia, to send money home. That was the economic lifeline. Now, though, the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia have changed the equation entirely.
When sanctions closed off normal trade and financial channels for Russian businesses, they needed workarounds. Kyrgyzstan, with its membership in a customs union with Russia and relatively accessible banking system, became one of those workarounds.
Azamat Akeneev, chief economic expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, puts it bluntly: “Because of sanctions, the country has become a kind of offshore hub for Russian companies using Kyrgyzstan’s financial system to settle their issues.” He says this explains why Kyrgyzstan is doing better than its neighbors right now.
Goods that used to flow directly between Russia and other markets now take detours through Kyrgyzstan. Financial transactions that can’t happen through traditional channels find alternative routes. All of this generates business, taxes, and jobs.
The Downsides Are Real
This economic boost isn’t free. Public debt has jumped to $8.4 billion as of late July, up $1.9 billion in just a year. That’s a significant increase for a country of Kyrgyzstan’s size, and it raises obvious concerns about whether this growth can last.
There’s also the diplomatic cost. The U.S. and UK have already sanctioned several Kyrgyz banks, accusing them of helping Russia evade sanctions. For a small country trying to navigate between larger powers, that’s a precarious position. The benefits of serving as a financial intermediary come with the risk of being cut off from Western financial systems.
Politics in the Mix
All of this is happening as Kyrgyzstan heads toward snap parliamentary elections on November 30. President Sadyr Japarov, a nationalist who’s been tightening his control over the country’s political system, is widely seen as using these elections to further consolidate power.
Kyrgyzstan used to be the most democratic country in Central Asia. That reputation has taken a beating under Japarov, who’s cracked down on opposition and dissent. Strong economic numbers, even if they’re built on shaky foundations, give him political cover to continue that trajectory.
What analysts are watching now is whether this economic moment represents a real opportunity for Kyrgyzstan to develop, or just a temporary windfall that could disappear as quickly as it arrived. The debt is mounting. Western pressure is building. And the political system is becoming less open, not more.
For ordinary Kyrgyz citizens, the immediate picture looks better than it has in years. There’s work, there’s money flowing, and things are being built. But scratch beneath the surface, and the questions about where this all leads are harder to answer. Kyrgyzstan has found itself in an unusual position, profiting from global disruption. Whether that turns into something sustainable or becomes a problem down the road depends on choices the country makes in the months ahead.