After a brutal bear market in 2022, Bitcoin is showing signs of life again in 2023. The original cryptocurrency has rallied 38% over the past month, breaking back above $37,000. This recent resurgence has reinvigorated speculation around when Bitcoin may finally surpass its former all-time high of $69,000 set in November 2021.
Keypoints
- Bitcoin’s price has surged recently, up 38% in the past month. It is now approaching $40,000.
- Metrics like Bitcoin’s realized price, lack of long liquidations, and positive funding rates indicate strong buying conviction and that many traders are currently in profit.
- Two major potential price catalysts are the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US, which could bring significant institutional investment, and the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, which will cut the Bitcoin mining reward in half.
- The “Terminal Price” on-chain indicator suggests the next Bitcoin cycle top could be at least $110,000. The “Pi Cycle Top” indicator has also been accurate at picking previous cycle tops.
- Analysts predict Bitcoin’s next all-time high could be in the $125,000 to $130,000 range based on historical patterns and the upcoming halving. Increased institutional adoption could push Bitcoin to a six-figure price.
Several key factors indicate Bitcoin’s price is building momentum for a renewed push to record levels. On-chain data reveals that current prices remain below most investors’ average cost basis, implying traders are sitting on gains and are conviction buying more BTC. The crypto derivatives market also tells a story of swelling bullish sentiment. There has been very little long profit-taking recently and shorts have aggressively unwound, signaling belief that much more upside lies ahead.
The major macroeconomic backdrop supporting Bitcoin’s rally is its upcoming halving event in April 2024. This will slash Bitcoin’s mining rewards per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, instantly cutting the new supply of Bitcoin in half overnight. With organic demand continuing to increase, this reduced issuance rate will tip the scales towards supply shock. The previous two halvings catalyzed gigantic bull runs that took Bitcoin to new heights. Many analysts believe the 2024 event will do the same.
Adding fuel to the fire is the growing likelihood that the SEC approves the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the coming months. Allowing direct Bitcoin exposure would make it significantly easier for institutional investors to allocate to BTC. Analysts estimate over 100,000 BTC could flow into Bitcoin ETFs in the first year, creating intense buying pressure. The regulatory green light would also debunk the myth that crypto markets lack oversight.
These converging factors have analysts eyeing new all-time highs by the end of 2023 or at the latest in 2024. On-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin’s “Terminal Price” indicator, which has historically marked cycle tops, suggests the next peak could be at least $110,000. Other more bullish estimates taking into account surging adoption foresee Bitcoin reaching $125,000 to $130,000 if current momentum continues.
Buy near Balanced Price, sell near Terminal Price.
Could it be that simple?#bitcoin cycles. pic.twitter.com/llHytNVuxr
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) November 10, 2023
The question for most observers now seems to be not if but when Bitcoin will finally eclipse its former high-water mark. As regulation and institutional investment continue evolving, Bitcoin appears primed to enter uncharted 6-figure territory, cementing its status as the premier cryptocurrency.
The coming year could go down as the one that took Bitcoin to the next level.
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